Here we go! The top image is our forecast for the day prior and day of the event February 27, 2013. The next image shows what actually happened, courtesy the National Weather Service's Daily Snowfall Map:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sf1_today.jpg
The final map is another closer look of observations taken by the event, courtesy the Albany NWS office, which is interactive too!
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/hydromet/erEventDisplay.php
So let's start with the good! I like to stay positive.
Positivity includes that we nailed the New Hampshire bulls eye snow total over the White Mountains, both forecast and observations showing a hot spot of snow totals up to or more than 10". We also showed the valley impact fairly well, of much less snow totals there, and also the highlight of higher snow totals in the mountains of Vermont and New York.
Unfortunately we underestimated the impact of those mountains and warm temperatures in places including the Champlain Valley and CT River Valley. There, mostly rain fell (in Burlington for instance where a quarter-inch of rain was observed) and that really cut into snow totals. I said in previous blogs that difficult winter forecasting with temperatures teetering near 32F can really throw snow projections off, cutting into them or adding right over projections.
Needless to say I'd go on the record saying we did fairly well with this one. To give it a grade I'd say a B-, because while we did highlight the mountains fairly well, the majority of our viewing, listening, and reading area lives in the Champlain Valley which we overestimated.
Preliminary number crunching that I just did shows that we hit 68% of our snow forecast, meaning 68% of the towns fell within the snow range that we predicted. I went through our graphic and each county we cover, looking at what our map said then looking at the ground report. For snow totals and links to these numbers I'm looking at, click below:
http://www.fox44abc22yourvoice.com/story/21419614/22713-some-gained-snow-some-lost-snow
So like I say, onto the next storm. Right now I don't see a huge one in the pipeline, though Friday March 1 may provide another unique, localized, upslope snow event for northern VT/NY/NH, but not as drastic as it was earlier in February with 24" to 2" in a mere 10-15 mile distance. Enjoy the snow if you got it!
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier
