From Meteorologist Steve Glazier,
Going through verification of the last storm (Tuesday February 19 - Wednesday February 20, 2013) I learned I underestimated the amount of snow we'd get.
My forecast in the previous days called for an inch or less in the Champlain Valley and 1-3" across the hillier terrain and mainly away from the Champlain Valley. On the left you'll see the highest snow totals I could find as of 8 a.m. and some other snow totals across the area. The bottom image is from NOAA and shows the amount of snowfall across New England as of 7 a.m. Wednesday.
Some snow totals are still trickling in, so to avoid this blog getting dated click the following links for the latest information.
Northern New York and Vermont snow totals
Southern Vermont snow totals
New Hampshire snow totals
Note some of these Public Information Statements are for previous storms, so find the date of Wednesday, February 20 for this storm's total.
I'd say the biggest miss was the Champlain Valley, where up to 4" was noted in many towns toward the Canadian border and higher points through about Middlebury.
We got slightly more precipitation than I anticipated. Forecast models were locked onto .10-.20" precip and isolated .25". We ended up getting .10-.25" isolated up to .34" in spots, thus slightly more than forecast. Also the rain/snow mix did not last as long as I anticipated in the warmer Champlain Valley. The brunt of the .22" precip Burlington got was snow (roughly .17" of it) and we ended up with 2.3" snow at the Burlington Int'l Airport. Colder air came in slightly faster with the precip than anticipated.
I didn't fare too badly for the Northeast Kingdom and areas east of the Champlain Valley where 1-3" was forecast and amounts ranged from 2-5". These smaller amounts are tough to forecast, especially when there is a rain-snow aspect. Looking back it appears the SREF handled this storm the best, which is short for Short Range Ensemble Forecast. That painted similar precipitation amounts over us compared to what we got.
The mountains benefited most! Many resorts got 2-5" of fresh snow, up to 6" in several mountains! The snowfall forecast through Friday morning February 21 shows another 4-8" expected snowfall for northern mountain resorts. We'll see how that one pans out :)
I write these verification blogs because I care a lot about my forecasts and how it will impact the public, and also to learn what happened and why. Hope you enjoyed reading.
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