While we continue to think about the brutally cold air temp outside and the forecast which holds more cold days and night (although we are NOW on the slow rebound...), there looks to be quite the change coming by Tuesday/Wednesday of the upcoming week. This change will bring a widespread thaw to the northeast once again with temperatures reaching a solid 40 to 60 degrees HIGHER than what we are currently enduring...aka, we'll see temps back in the 30s and 40s by mid next week.
Why? It's all about where the jet stream meanders. This constantly changing, swift flowing current of air high in the atmosphere drives storm systems and provides to undulating pattern of cold and warm temperatures all across the Northern Hemisphere- cold air to the north of the jet, and warmer air to it's south.
See the video above for the changes will we see in the coming week.
How confident am I in this thaw? Not super confident. The overall trend of weather is often more reliable than even a day to day forecast (aka, the small details). The larger trend is more of a general change in the atmospheric setup...the details of the forecast, I'm sure will change. I have moderate confidence with the general change up in the jet stream setup, but to what extent, there's still a lot of disparity among models. This is something that can probably be sorted out in the next couple of days.