Happy New Year!
One of my new year goals is to provide the most accurate forecasts I can. Though that is truly my objective any day I set foot inside the TV station, I have a little extra motivation after waking up Sunday to find it *still snowing*!
Last week weather models were continuing to show an area of low pressure developing just off the Mid-Atlantic coast, missing us and sparing us from any big impacts. However once Thursday came around, those models started trending the center of the low pressure closer and closer to our area, with increasing chances for snow accumulation. Come Friday, about 20 ensemble forecasts put 20 different 'L's near what we call the 'benchmark' for a New England storm, 40°N, -70°W. That would translate into our area getting a decent amount of snow!
Still though, given a fairly fast flow aloft in the jet stream, and storm intensification too far away from us, I estimated about a .10-.20" liquid precipitation forecast for Saturday to Sunday, with isolated amounts up to .25-.30" in the southern part of Vermont. I estimated 20:1 snow ratios which means 20" of snow per 1" of liquid precip, which would net in a roughly 2-4" snow event with isolated amounts up to 6" in the southern Green Mountains. However here is what happened:
Burlington: 10.6" snow!
Most places 4-8" of snow, isolated amounts up to 15" in Ripton, VT and some lower accumulations of 2-4" in Orleans and Washington counties. Snow ratios were about 25:1 in Burlington, with a storm total precip of .42"! Much more than what we were thinking, and I believe it lasted longer in Burlington because of a north flow getting stronger Saturday night and lasting through Sunday, which channeled the wind in the Champlain Valley and kept the snow remaining there longer. The storm center passed well out to sea, but there was a lot of moisture with it so it reached all the way up into southern Quebec.
We'll continue to provide you the best forecasts we can in upcoming events, as well as returning to previous forecasts to see what happened and why.
As for the mountains, it has been magical!
|SKI RESORT||2-DAY SNOW AS OF 12/31||7-DAY SNOW AS OF 12/31|
As we enter 2013 the forecast looks very cold, while potentially bringing accumulating snow too. Although no 'big' storms are in the forecast (and I do mean that!) minor systems will drop a couple of inches of snow from time to time through early January.
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier