With less than a week to go until Christmas , it's not too early to make a forecast!
In looking at the reliable mid range forecast models, there;there's pretty good agreement in the overall atmospheric setup for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. It would look as though a large atmospheric trough sets up over eastern Canada. This set up generally indicates a cold, and somewhat unsettled atmosphere. The position of the trough, just to our northeast, this should allow colder air to churn into the northeast. The going forecast certainly shows that with daytime temps generally in the 20s and overnight lows in the single digits to teens for the 2 days of holiday.
Meanwhile at the surface, a bubble of high pressure looks to build in from the west. To me, this type of setup would indicate a chilly/seasonable Christmas, perhaps some snow showers as well, especially over the mountains, with an attempt of sun breaking through in the southern valleys. With any luck, a bundle of energy would push through the trough and kick up a period of snow showers for all. That kind of detail will need to wait a few days.
As for the snow cover on the ground, it would seem whatever we get on the tail end of Friday's system and into the weekend will be our best shot at a "white Christmas" (often classified as having at least 1" of snow on the ground). The best shot for that will be across the colder, higher mountain areas of northern NY, northern VT, and northern NH where I've given it the 90% (likely) chance of having a white Christmas. In fact, it would seem that a prolonged period of upslope snow will develop across the northern mountains and the northwest facing slopes of the mountains right through the weekend. Several inches will likely add up there.
Where a white Christmas gets more questionable is in the lower valleys and southern VT/southern NH. With rain being the dominant precip type during the day Friday in the valleys and southern VT/southern NH, we'll be relying on any lingering moisture Friday night, which does look like much, unfortunately. Check out the image on the left hand side showing the white Christmas probability (which I aired on Fox 44 News at 10 on Tuesday night).
