12.14.12 Late Start to Winter, Though Several *Chances* for Snow - FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports

12.14.12 Late Start to Winter, Though Several *Chances* for Snow

It was the chatter at the station on Friday morning...

"I don't want this sleet/rain/snow mix, I want snow!" exclaimed one coworker to me. I replied, "Me too." I've learned to become fairly neutral on opinion for weather while on air, but I can't let this feeling fall by the wayside, I want some snow too!

So the first half of December is almost in the books, as I type this up on a Friday morning the 14th day of the month. It's been a very warm start to December 2012 in the Burlington area as temperatures have averaged +7.15° compared to the climate 1981-2010. The snow has been lacking too, falling almost a half-foot short on snow so far this month and even behind last year's sub-par winter (at this time last year that is). However we do have some light at the end of the tunnel. Let's talk about the incoming weather Sunday.

WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN

A warm front will be approaching from the southwest on Sunday morning. This is going to spread clouds over us by the time you wake up Sunday, eventually leading to light snow falling by about 1 p.m. for most folks. Prior to this event, we will be locked in with colder air from a previous cold front and temperatures will be in the 20s. Light snow will accumulate to an inch or less by dusk Sunday, however continue through the night. Precipitation will continue through Monday morning too.

WHAT TYPE OF PRECIP WE WILL GET

We'll get a light, fluffy snow to start, then a mixture of sleet and rain/snow mix in the Champlain Valley and areas west into New York, as well as far southern Vermont, sometime on Sunday night. I'm not too sure when that will happen, but probably around midnight or so. This will lead to a mix of sleet, rain, and snow through central Vermont too by Monday morning, however I'm still expecting an all snow type in Vermont's Northeast Kingdom and northern New Hampshire by Monday morning.

HOW MUCH WE CAN EXPECT

It all depends where you live. Let's break down my recent projections by sections.

• Champlain Valley and Adirondack Mountains of New York: 1-2" snow with sleet mixing in and even light rain by Monday morning.
• Southern Vermont and New Hampshire: 1-2" snow, but more sleet and rain by Monday morning. So some of that may melt by Monday morning.
• Connecticut River Valley: 1-2" snow, limited sleet and rain, so mostly snow. However I think the valley will get shadowed in spots by the mountains with a decent southeast wind component. This includes up to St. J and Lyndon by the way.
• North central Vermont, including the NEK and northern Grafton/Coos counties: 2-5". Away from the CT River valley like St. J, 2-5" is the forecast with mostly all snow, limited sleet. I think the colder air will get locked in their longer with southeast-facing slopes getting closer to that 5" mark, such as Randolph, Northfield, Montpelier, Morrisville, Stowe, and Jay.

IMPACTS

Worst impacts look like slippery travel with ice on the roadways Sunday night, overnight hours, and Monday morning, especially east of the Champlain Valley.

WHAT ABOUT NEXT WEEK?

I wish I could tell you a more definitive answer. However right now I expect a Tuesday night-Wednesday rain/snow storm. The weather models are very inconsistent with each update, so it makes it tougher to have confidence in the forecast. However all models hint at an area of low pressure near the Mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday night-Wednesday morning and moving northeast near Cape Cod. Warmer air does look to get closer to the area, so I'm sticking with a rain/snow mix. However if it goes further out to sea, we would see all snow but less amounts of everything. We'll have more on that storm as it gets closer!

-Meteorologist Steve Glazier