Thursday, May 23 2013 2:51 PM EDT2013-05-23 18:51:07 GMT
Crews are responding to a garbage truck that caught fire off Shelburne Road in Shelburne, Vt. According to the Shelburne Fire Department, something in the back of a Casella Waste truck caught fire. TheMore >>
Crews are responding to a garbage truck that caught fire off Shelburne Road in Shelburne, Vt.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 2:04 PM EDT2013-05-23 18:04:40 GMT
The N.H. Senate is expected to take up a bill Thursday to legalize medical marijuana in the state. According to the legislation HB573, it would allow patients with cancer, glaucoma, positive status forMore >>
The N.H. Senate is expected to take up a bill Thursday to legalize medical marijuana in the state.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 12:34 PM EDT2013-05-23 16:34:26 GMT
The Essex Fire Department and Vermont Gas are currently investigating the smell of propane at the Edge Fitness Center in Essex, Vt.FOX44 and ABC22 reporter Michael Page says they haven't found anythingMore >>
The Essex Fire Department and Vermont Gas are currently investigating the smell of propane at the Edge Fitness Center in Essex, Vt.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 12:22 PM EDT2013-05-23 16:22:39 GMT
The annual Spring Move Out Project in Burlington Thursday. The project allows you to get rid of unwanted, but still usable household goods. You can bring clothes, books, furniture, household items, andMore >>
The annual Spring Move Out Project is being held in Burlington Thursday.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 10:40 AM EDT2013-05-23 14:40:21 GMT
If you're planning on traveling this holiday weekend, you're not alone. According to AAA, more than 30 million Americans will be on the roadways. On average, they'll also be driving at least 50 miles forMore >>
If you're planning on traveling this holiday weekend, you're not alone.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 9:31 AM EDT2013-05-23 13:31:51 GMT
Each year between 5 and 7 million animals enter a shelter. Purina Cat Chow is trying to offset some of those costs. The company is donating $200,000 to 50 shelters and that's where you come in. A quickMore >>
Each year between 5 and 7 million animals enter a shelter. Purina Cat Chow is trying to offset some of those costs. More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 8:54 AM EDT2013-05-23 12:54:39 GMT
Two sides of the law are working together in order to keep the peace at the border. Vermont State Police an Quebec's Provincial Police met to address the challenges of policing at the border in a specialMore >>
Two sides of the law are working together in order to keep the peace at the border.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 8:13 AM EDT2013-05-23 12:13:33 GMT
New details in an officer involved shooting that happened in Danville, Vt. last year.In September, 36-year-old William Mahoney was shot by a state trooper. This after police say he stole a vehicle andMore >>
New details in an officer involved shooting that happened in Danville, Vt. last year.More >>
Thursday, May 23 2013 7:21 AM EDT2013-05-23 11:21:15 GMT
The Colchester Police Department is responding to a sink hole in the area of East Road near the intersection of Austin House Road. Police say the sink hole has closed down one lane of travel.Police areMore >>
The Colchester Police Department is responding to a sink hole in the area of East Road near the intersection of Austin House Road.More >>
Wednesday, May 22 2013 9:56 PM EDT2013-05-23 01:56:44 GMT
Nearly two years ago, Deborah Drewniak's family wasn't sure if she would be around after being severely injured in a texting and driving accident. Instead of focusing on herself, Drewniak wants to helpMore >>
A Vermont woman seriously injured by a teen, who was texting and driving, is trying to share her story with as many people as she can.More >>
It's a question on many minds this time of year... what is the winter going to be like?
Our Sky Tracker meteorologists have been asked this many times already this year.
Over the past few winters, Mother Nature has "toyed" with us... providing a winter of record snowfall just a couple of years ago, to one of the brownest and warmest years even long time locals have ever experienced. Chief meteorologist Kerrin Jeromin looked in to winters past to develop a seasonal outlook for this coming 2012-2013 winter.
Think back to March 6-7th of 2011, the last wallop of snow for our region after a winter of record snowfall. That winter, nearly 130" of snow fell in the Burlington area.
Now, think about last winter. A winter for the record books for least snowfall with only 37" of snow in Burlington...about half of average.
"I think if we see another winter like that, as warm, I think a lot of people will be scratching their heads wondering if there's something more than we just aren't aware of yet", explains Mike Halpert from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
After analyzing winters past, looking at what weather patterns existed each season and what kind of winter we had, and with the use of weather models, Kerrin expects a slightly warmer and slightly lower than average snowfall this winter compared to any average winter season.
"Every year has its variability and really what it all boils down to is the location of the jet stream", explains Paul Sisson from the National Weather Service in Burlington.
The jet stream is a fast flowing current of air in the upper atmosphere. Located about 4 to 8 miles above the Earth's surface, the jet stream is the steering mechanism for storm systems. It is also the cutoff of cold air to the north, and warm air to the south.
"Obviously for snow we want cold air", Sisson says.
In the Northeast, one of the big players in what kind of winter we see, lies in the Atlantic ocean. The changing location of high and low pressure systems determine just how much cold air can flow southward away from the Polar regions. The problem with this is that we can only forecast that pattern about a week or two out…not months in advance.
"Until we're able to come up with a way to reliably forecast that, winter will probably continue to be a challenging forecast [in places like Vermont]", explains Halpert.
There are three other signs used to forecast for winters across the country. The first, and most reliable, is the ENSO cycle. This is more commonly known as El Nino or La Nina and is the fluctuation of water temperature in Pacific ocean.
"In many winters, we either have an El Nino or La Nina and that helps provide some type of a consistent forecast signal that tilts us in one direction or another. And this year, we don't even have that to latch on to", says Halpert.
Second, trends in regional climate are also considered in long term forecasting.
"[In Burlington], we've seen a slight increase over time. But, you can still see big peaks and big valleys from year to year in our snowfall amounts", explains Sisson.
The third, and newest clue, and likely perhaps the future of forecasting, is the use of computer models.
"That's on a lot of people's minds. Not only what the winter will look like, but the next 10, 20, or 30 years going to look like", explains Sisson.
Based on current weather model data, winter should get off to a warmer than average start, but return to normal by early 2013
One final thing to keep in mind... the terrain plays a large role in snowfall totals each season.
According to local climate data, valley areas average anywhere from about 50-80 inches of natural snowfall each season. Whereas many of the nearby ski areas average anywhere from 200-300 inches of snowfall...some even more.
Consider this, even in last winter's sub par year, Jay Peak ski resort had about 250 inches of natural snowfall...quite a bit more than that measly 37 inches in Burlington.
So, with Kerrin's current forecast of below average snowfall and slightly warmer than average temperatures, it's important to remember, it's all relative to each little microclimate across our region.