Good Monday morning!
Record warmth is headed our way for Monday, November 12. We had wild conditions this morning, and we will continue to have wild conditions through tomorrow. In fact a meteorologist at the National Weather Service put it as, 'Wow' when he mentioned it was 33° in Massena, NY and 63° in Potsdam, NY, at the same time, just 18 miles apart. I agree with his comment.
It was a difficult forecast for town-by-town details Sunday night. Widespread temperature ranges of 20-30° were seen on our maps this morning. The weather setup shows very warm air streaming in from the south ahead of a cold front. This air is coming from Texas and the Plain states where that area was in the 80s last week. That's a different story Monday morning, Burlington was warmer than Dallas, TX by a solid 20°!
High Temperature Records at risk Monday
Mount Washington, NH 44° (2010)
Montpelier, VT 62° (1982)
Lebanon, NH: 64 (1982)
St. Johnsbury, VT 65° (1911)
Burlington, VT 66° (1982)
Massena, NY 70° (1982)
So what's up with this? Well it's a big push of warm air from the south, while cold air is plunging in behind the weather front. The atmosphere is always trying to balance itself. Think of the atmosphere as if it's a liquid. You have cold, dense air at the high latitudes, then warm less dense air at the equatorial region. Warm air pushes pole ward, while cold air plunges south (or north in the Southern Hemisphere). Sometimes it goes east, sometimes west. It's a balancing act. We will see this 'balancing act' in the next couple of days.;
Here's the best way to put it: We'll go from temperatures near 70° Monday (in the warmest valleys) to near 25° Tuesday night, just over a 36-hour period. Records will likely be broken Monday, followed by more seasonable temperatures for the rest of the week. In fact, yes you can call this an "Indian Summer." By definition, a warm stretch of weather following a couple hard, killing frosts is known as an Indian Summer. Regardless I'm going to enjoy the 60 degree weather today, as it will be gone before I know it!
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier