While no major changes to the Sandy forecast since Steve's blog this morning (click to read that), I wanted to outline a few of our scenarios for local impacts. By local, I am referring to northern New York, Vermont, and interior New Hampshire.
Check out my video (above) and hear about the 3 main scenarios that may pan out with Sandy. The "scariest" models would be scenario 1...this has been toyed with a few model runs. The most likely scenario is 2, with a landfall somewhere south of Long Island to the Del Marva. Several models have been shifting "left" over time...or rather, curving the storm into the coastline earlier and earlier. Should this continue to be the trend, then that's better news for our local region. The farther away the storm is, the less impacts we will see. Check out the image to the top left (click to enlarge) of all the model runs. Look for clusters to see most likely path. The thicker red line is the official National Hurricane Center forecast (click here to visit the NHC website).
That said, impacts will be felt from a great distance from the center of the storm. This will potentially be a deep, and powerful storm. With that, the tropical storm strength wind field will extend hundreds of miles from the actual storm center.Winds like this could certainly cause extended power outages for our region. Rounds of rainfall with slowly add up, potentially to 2-5" in our region. Is this enough to cause flooding? Most likely, but perhaps not the caliber and coverage of Irene.
East coast travel? Forget it! At least through Friday.