10.2.12 Snow WHAT?!? - FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports

10.2.12 Snow WHAT?!?

Alright! here's the current scoop on the weekend weather. Its going to be an interesting ride- or at least the current forecast says so.

Saturday will be mostly dry in northern NY and northern VT, but a cold front to our south will bring occasional showers, especially central and southern areas. This front will be the leading edge to much colder air that will be filling in all through Saturday and especially Sunday/Monday. This cold air is currently pouring down into Montana and the upper midwest...check out the local NWS page for northern Montana...

Once this colder air fills in for our weekend, here's what happens next. A coastal low will develop along southern New England, pushing moisture in from the south. What will be mostly a rain event Saturday night to Sunday, will probably turn into a snowy event over the higher mountainous terrain as the colder air advects in from the northwest. As of Tuesday night, it looks like snow levels are at about 2000' by Sunday afternoon. This would mean snow for our mountain tops (what a lovely match with peak foliage). Accumulation will be difficult with our warm ground, but right now I'm thinking less than one-inch for the mountains. If any moisture is leftover by Sunday night/early Monday morning, it will be cold enough all the way down to the valleys to see a flurry or two, but I do not expect any accumulation in valleys. What fun October brings us!

The images on the left show one model forecast (the GFS) each 3 hour increment of Sunday. For those who are not familiar with weather models, the green indicates precipitation, with the lightest green indicating the lightest precipitation and the darker greens/blues indicate heavier precipitation. I've drawn the freezing line in pink at elevation of about 4000', and the small red dot is Burlington on a larger map of the northeast.