Hmm. Not the best news to share this evening. The Climate Prediction Center has released their 3 month outlook for temperature and precipitation. It is a little concerning for the northeast, with an increase chance of above average temperatures for the October, November, and December months (see photo on left-top). Let me begin by saying, this is not surprising, nor is it unlikely. In fact, the past 17 months have been above average for temperatures in our region (April 2011-August 2012). Once we round out September this weekend, we'll likely add one more to that list.
The overall climate trends so not change overnight. They are much more gradual swings than day to day temperatures. Hence, why there will likely still be above average temperatures through the rest of the year. Should this pan out, it would mean winter will be off to a slow start, with probably plenty of "mixed precipitation" storm systems (remember last winter!? ugh!).
Now with that, the second half of winter could easily return to "normalcy". Temperatures could certainly return to a more typical northeast winter, with biting cold and snowstorms.
I believe last winter was a fluke. It's so rare that we see such a lame winter with such a lack of snow.
As I look back at data from the past 17 months, the departure from average-temperatures are getting smaller and smaller...by that I mean, the average temperature is slowly getting closer and closer to be back on track with "normal". So by the time Jan-March rolls around, we may very well be back to "typical" winter weather.
On another note, the CPC shows nothing of much significance synoptically for precipitation being above or below average. The chances are all equal at this time. (see photo on left-bottom)
