9.17.12 Strong Mid-September Storm - FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports

9.17.12 Strong Mid-September Storm

From Meteorologist Steve Glazier,

More heavy rain and strong winds are on the way. A large storm system will evolve out of the Gulf Coast states Monday, September 17 and be on our doorstep by Tuesday the 18th.

Two areas of low pressure, at the surface and aloft, will team up to make this a strong one. As of 11 a.m. Monday the two storms were separate, one bringing in much cooler air to the northern Midwest, the other; bringing downpours to Louisiana through Tennessee.

We here at Fox44 & Abc 22 want to keep you prepared and up to date with regards to any big storm coming in. I know I take each weather forecast very seriously and try to think of all the possible effects. So in case you miss our morning or evening broadcasts, here is what our models are projecting for Tuesday:

These images are our Future Tracker, which advances from the top image to the bottom with time. Notice the day will start dry Tuesday, but clouds will quickly increase and so will the chance for rain, especially after noon. However the heaviest of the rain will move through Tuesday night. As you can see in the bottom image, the yellows, oranges, and reds show the capability of heavy downpours. Note the time as well in the top left, it will be overnight into the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Here are our local projections for rain totals. These are three model projections from Monday morning. They are in fairly good agreement.

I always mention on air not to take these accumulation forecasts exactly literal. It is nearly impossible to pinpoint how much rain you'll get, down to the one-hundredth of an inch especially. However look at this image for a range and estimate of how much rain to expect. I would say the margin of error for this upcoming event is roughly +/- 20%. So if you're not a math guy like me, take Burlington's roughly 1.40" (from the images above) forecast, apply a 20% plus of minus m.o.e. and that will give you 1.12-1.68" range for rain. Every storm is different. Thus in the future it might have a larger m.o.e. or larger range of how much we can expect.

My official forecast is for a widespread 1.00-1.50 inches of rain, with isolated amounts up to 2.50 inches. The ground can handle the following:

1.5 inches in 1 hour

2 inches in 3 hours

2.5 inches in 6 hours

That data is based off Flash Flood Guidance from NOAA. It is a good indicator of how much rain/precipitation the ground can handle prior to heavy events.  These numbers above can be exceeded with this storm, in my opinion. Thus flash flooding is possible, but if it does occur it will be on the minor side and isolated. If you hear weather alerts, be mindful of them and do the safe procedure(s) as mentioned in the warnings/watches/advisories.  With regards to wind, I'm tossed. The winds will be cranking with this system, 65-85 miles per hour just a few thousand feet above the ground. However the winds that many of us see in the lower elevations will depend on dry air near the surface. It's iffy how much dry air we'll have, thus I'm expecting wind gusts 35-45 mph and some isolated power outages.

This will all clear up by Wednesday morning, 8 a.m. We'll continue to update our Twitter and Facebook pages as this storm approaches. I hope this information is helpful. I know it won't be pinpoint exact, but it should prepare you with an idea of what is to come.

-Steve Glazier