Potentially-heavy rain will move through the region Tuesday into Wednesday, September 4 to 5, 2012. This rain will come at a good time as the ground has been very dry.
In the last ten days, here's a look at where weather recording stations stand in terms of accumulated rainfall (through Monday night, Sept. 02):
Plattsburgh, NY: 0.02"
Saranac Lake, NY: 0.06"
Massena, NY: 0.16"
Burlington, VT: 0.23"
Rutland, VT: 0.46"
St. Johnsbury, VT: 0.57"
Montpelier, VT: 0.57"
Springfield, VT: 0.58"
Getting these amounts in the previous ten days is not a whole lot, especially for the towns in northwest Vermont and New York. Of course it is summer so the rain can vary widely between towns because of thunderstorms.
Thus just in time we have some decent rain on the way! A widespread 0.50"-1.00" is likely by midday Wednesday, September 5. On the low end of things, which is expected across northern New York where it has been dry, 0.25"-0.50" is expected. However on the wetter side, up to two inches is possible in localized areas in central/southern Vermont and New Hampshire!
Don't worry though, we have plenty of room to put all this water.
When looking at the river levels according to the USGS, here's what we have.
The number of rivers showing the following:
Above average levels: 0/44 or 0%
"Average" levels: 9/44 or 20%
Below-average levels: 19/44 or 43%
Very low levels: 11/44 or 25%
Extremely low: 1/44 or 2%
Those stats came from this page:
The above stats are for the Vermont area, with a few gauges in nearby states that we cover for our viewing area. The flash flood guidance http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/ffg.php?duration=3&location=VT is also high for us, meaning it will take a lot of rain to produce flash flooding. The latest analysis shows between two and three inches in a three-hour period to produce flash flooding. Also a 1.5"-2.0" in a one-hour period to produce it. Neither are likely with this system.
Hopefully we can do some catching up. Aside from river flooding being unlikely, the occasional "urbanized" flooding can occur within poor drainage areas or within heavy, heavy downpours. However those normally don't last that long. But always remember, never drive through any flooded roads!
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier