8.28.12 T.S. Irene: What We Can Learn - FOX44 - Burlington / Plattsburgh News, Weather & Sports

8.28.12 T.S. Irene: What We Can Learn

One year ago Tropical Storm Irene left devastating scars across the terrain of New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire.  It also left invisible scars on the people it impacted. What has happened, has happened. People are still handling money issues with FEMA and the state and I understand that. But from a meteorological standpoint it is time to move onto the next disaster that will hit our area, take what happened with Irene, and make more elaborate forecasts and prepare the public even better.

I mentioned in yesterday's blog about my time in Boston, Mass last week where I spoke about the historic flooding in this area. I was with Chief Met Kerrin Jeromin and we spoke to a roomful of television and radio broadcasters (mostly meteorologists). Also in the crowd were folks at NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration).  Here are the main topics we covered in our 15 minute presentation at the Boston Park Plaza Hotel & Towers:

• The forecast track for Tropical Storm/Hurricane Irene kept shifting east in the days leading up to its arrival in our area.
• Looking back at the data, the National Hurricane Center had the track down almost to the exact positioning of where Irene would go...on Wednesday. The storm didn't hit us until Sunday.  However we as broadcasters were still unsure if this storm would go out to sea or track further west.
• A couple days prior to the event, our forecast called for a widespread four to seven inches of rain and localized amounts up to eight inches.
• The result from the storm was a widespread four to seven inches with some locations getting eight inches. The forecast was good, however the impact was not as clear.
• Leading up to the event, it was difficult to speak over the national media and the bullet points on the wind, and impacts to the Carolinas and NYC. It was difficult to get our voice out over theirs regarding the flooding rain impact locally.
• We don't get these often. Tropical systems don't hit our area like Irene did very often. So as an analog and something to look back to and compare it to, the data is limited for forecasters to use. We did have T.S. Floyd roll through in '99. However the flooding was not as terrible.
• With Floyd in 1999, the ground was super dry. With Irene in 2011 the ground was super wet.  This aided the severe flooding.
• We need to communicate the forecast better to the public. I should say 'I do,' rather than speaking for others. I need to take the forecast a step further and explain the impact, rather than just relaying 'Flash Flood Watch' in effect for our area. What does that mean? What's my best guess/estimate will happen? Be honest and simple with the public.

I realized the severity of the storm when pictures and video started coming in. But this is a good thing about this day and age. Everyone is an I-Reporter. There are more cell phones on this earth than there are people. Almost everyone has the ability to document a natural disaster like this and it helps meteorologists and forecasts out big time.  We can see what's happening at the ground level, instead of just accumulated rain from a rain gauge. What does that translate to? Well now we're getting a better look from the public on what storms are causing.

To the future I'm going to be relying on the public very heavily. I'm in a studio with no windows combing through lots of data. But I need you, the public! Thank you in advance for your reports and suggestions of where to send news crews so we can tell others the story, and save lives in the process.

The technology continues to get better.  The forecast track with Irene was spot on four days out when the storm was still in the Caribbean.  Granted at the time we were still unsure where it would ultimately goes, it shows the forecast ability is getting better. We're constantly tweaking weather models and getting the most information we can from those planes that are sent out into the storms. 

For instance the radar in Burlington, Albany, and Gray Maine have recently been updated. The doppler radar is now dual polarized. The technology now allows us to get a three-dimensional view of what's in those clouds. It can help us with flash flooding, as the radar now has a better grip on how much rain has fallen and the rainfall rate ongoing.  Better and better technology will lead to a greater lead time and heads up for the public with regards to weather alerts.

Unfortunately sometimes it takes big events to learn for big events. I think Irene was one of those. Everyone has a story from it, but I bet everyone has learned from it. From a forecaster and broadcaster role I have certainly learned from it and will try to translate that into the best awareness in the future events.

-Meteorologist Steve Glazier

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