Both tropical systems currently in the Atlantic are weakening. The first, Ernesto, is nearing Mexico. Here is the latest on T.S. Ernesto as of 11 a.m. Monday, the 6th of August:
The storm has a chance to become a hurricane by Tuesday. In fact, the National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to become a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph by Wednesday morning, then making landfall.
Last week forecasters were concerned about the storm making landfall in Texas, however the path has shifted further south during the weekend. The L represents the storm forecast to be a depression or post tropical, in other words, much weaker.
Here's the latest discussion regarding Ernesto from the NHC:
"AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE STORM THIS
MORNING FOUND THAT ERNESTO HAS STRENGTHENED AND THAT THE CENTER IS
LOCATED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUSLY POSITION. IT
IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS WAS A RESULT OF A REFORMATION
OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT BASED ON
RAIN-ADJUSTED SFMR OBSERVATIONS AND VISUAL ESTIMATES FROM THE
HURRICANE HUNTERS. THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED
AND...NOW THAT THE CENTER IS WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION... THERE IS AN INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF
STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ERNESTO BECOMING A
HURRICANE...AND CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN UP TO LANDFALL. THIS IS
IN REASONBALE AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE
HWRF MODEL.
WITH THE REPOSITIONING OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION IS MORE
UNCERTAIN AND MY BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/8. ALTHOUGH THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED...THE NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE
WILL NOT WEAKEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW ERNESTO TO TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
NORTH OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND VERY CLOSE TO THE
LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS."
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 15.8N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.2N 82.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 16.8N 84.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 17.5N 86.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 18.2N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 19.0N 92.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 19.0N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 19.0N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
The other named storm is Florence, but it isn't doing too tell. It is post tropical right now, meaning that it has weakened and is not showing signs of a tropical system at the moment. It is forecast to continue to hold together and possibly strengthen, but not become a hurricane per the official NHC forecast.
It is also very hard to find on the satellite, barely showing up on the imagery here.
The forecast is for the track of the storm to move to the north of the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico, which we in the East Coast should watch because it could come close to the coastal areas. It is early, but we'll continue monitoring it. Here's the latest official discussion regarding it:
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR OVER 12 HOURS
NOW...AND ALL THAT REMAINS OF FLORENCE IS AN EXPOSED SURFACE
CIRCULATION AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 110
MILES WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. CONSEQUENTLY...FLORENCE
IS ASSESSED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. A SURROUNDING DRY/STABLE AIR MASS...COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION IN 5 DAYS OR LESS.
THE REMNANT LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...BUT AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER RATE OF FORWARD MOTION...275/13. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND CONTINUE
TO INCREASE IN SPEED WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW TO THE
SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/1500Z 16.4N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 16.5N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/1200Z 16.9N 46.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/0000Z 17.6N 50.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 08/1200Z 18.5N 54.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1200Z 21.1N 60.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 24.2N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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