*Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening hours Monday, July 23 and into early Tuesday, July 24.*
Get ready for some more potential thunderstorms. July has featured two rounds of widespread thunderstorms (that have caused damage as well) and the third round is possible later Monday.
Warm, moist air ahead of an approaching cold front will likely fuel thunderstorms and rain showers between 3 p.m. and midnight. Because of the nature of summertime thunderstorms, some could develop before 3 p.m. or last after midnight, but most will occur during that timeframe.
The parameters for these storms look pretty good. When forecasting these events, I take a good look at how unstable the atmosphere can get. The more unstable, the bigger and rougher the storms could be. Of course there are other parameters such as lift and moisture that is needed for storms. That said, models indicate a lot of instability, moisture, and lift (late in the day) to produce these storms. The main lift won't arrive until late today and tonight, so in my opinion that will delay the onset of these thunderstorms until 3 p.m. and thereafter.
The entire area is at risk for severe thunderstorms through 8 a.m. Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK issued a Slight Risk for severe weather during this time. The last time we had a slight risk area was Tuesday, July 17 where we had a grand total (in our viewing area) of about 50 storm reports, 38 of them being from wind damage and two lightning strikes that caused fires.
These storms (today/tonight) could bring some hefty hail up to 1.50" thick. Heavy rain is another potential, but I don't think we'll have as bad winds as we did with the last round of storms on July 17. The winds aloft Mon/Tues will be cruising at 40-50 mph, but they were up to 70 mph with the last round.
It's going to be very warm and muggy until this cold front moves through. Temperatures will be five to ten degrees above average, along with muggy humidity levels.
The weather pattern this week and into the weekend will be more active than it has been lately. High pressure will be locked in across the Plains and Midwest. This will worsen the drought in the central CONUS, while allowing for waves in the atmosphere to cruise along this stationary front. Thus, we'll have the chance for rain today, early tomorrow, then again Thursday and Saturday. Although today will feature the best chance to have severe weather.
As always, please stay informed! If any severe thunderstorms develop, we'll try to add stories on the homepage and more information. Severe weather warnings will automatically pop up on our homepage as well. Monitor our weather section from time to time, as forecast details and discussion are updated multiple times each day. And most importantly just keep an eye on the sky! Let's face it, it's summer, we're all not anchored down in front of a computer all day. Most of us will be outside at some point so keep an eye to the western sky as any thunderstorms that develop will move from west to east at about 30 mph today/tonight.
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier