Yesterday (Tuesday) I was asked about the allergy report. I always forget to check it before I go on air too, because it slips my mind as I don't suffer from seasonal allergies. So I went onto a few web sites to check it out.
By the way, the pollen/allergy forecast is so-so. It's 'moderate' or 'medium' with low levels in the department of trees, but high in the weed/grass department. Or at least that's what the expert web sites tell me :)
I was on pollen dot com when I came across this:
FORECAST
Of course I clicked on it. I love comparing what I think will happen to others. However this source definitely one-upped me.
On pollen.com there's a weather forecast tab and if you click on it, it will bring you to a graph showing you low and high temperatures, chances for precipitation, and cloud cover forecast (as well as some other things like wind, humidity, etc.) for the next 28 days! The source is [weathertrends360]. And you know what...I actually kind of like it!
The first several days have the most detail. The forecast will give you an exact high and low temperature. It will also give you the wind, max wind gust, relative humidity, UV Index, and more.
You may be thinking, well how do they forecast the next 21 days? Well after the first seven, the forecast loses detail. Instead of saying 88° for the high, it will say 'high 80s.' Instead of 60° for the low, it will say 'low 60s.' Also, which may be the most important part to people, it actually gives an icon of what to expect in terms of the sky cover. The wording ranges in these phrases: Sunny, few clouds, thundershowers, thunderstorms, showers, partly sunny, scattered t-storms, and a few more.
How is this done? Well there are computer models that go out 16 days in advance, such as the GFS. However it loses a lot of credibility once it gets beyond 7 to 8 days. In fact in the winter, passed five days is iffy. I'm sure there are other weather models that go out further to help with it.
The reason I kind-of like it is because it gives folks an idea of what to expect if they have something planned three weeks away. Yet again, folks will continue to watch the forecast for that one specific day to see if things change. Heck, they may even wait until the day of whether to call it off, or still have the event. So 28 days out may be useless because you'll still come back wanting the latest details. However, for seasonal impacts like cold weather streaks and home heating, a month-long forecast may actually be beneficial (if it verifies of course!)
As a matter of fact, the weathertrends360 has that name because they do offer a 365-day forecast. So basically another version of the Farmer's Almanac, right? Well I've never verified the Farmer's Almanac before, so I don't know how well it does. I tried to click on the 365 day forecast but it wanted me to sign up first, so I didn't do that.
I jotted down the 28-day forecast for South Burlington, VT (05403). I'll go back and check with the South Burlington weather station at the airport to verify it once August comes.
Tuesday, July 10: Light rain showers, high 81.
Wednesday, July 11: Few clouds. Low 54, high 84.
Thursday, July 12: Few clouds. Low 59, high 87.
Friday, July 13: Few clouds. Low 61, high 88.
Saturday, July 14: Few clouds. Low 62, high 90.
Sunday, July 15: Rain. Low 64, high 87.
Monday, July 16: Rain. Low 66, high 89.
Tuesday, July 17: Rain. Low 67, high 85.
Wednesday, July 18: Few clouds. Low 63, high 84.
Thursday, July 19: Few clouds. Low 61, high 87.
Friday, July 20: Few clouds. Low 61, high 88.
Saturday, July 21: Few clouds. Low 63, high 88.
Sunday, July 22: Few clouds. Low 66, high 88.
Monday, July 23: Light rain showers. Low 65, high 85.
Tuesday, July 24: Scattered T-Storms. Low 64-66, high 80-83.
Wednesday, July 25: Sunny. Low 60-63, high 84-86.
Thursday, July 26: Sunny. Low 60-63, high 80-83.
Friday, July 27: Partly sunny. Low 64-66, high 80-83.
Saturday, July 28: T-Storms. Low 60-63. High 77-79.
Sunday, July 29: Sunny. Low 64-66, high 84-86.
Monday, July 30: Sunny. Low 60-63, high 80-83.
Tuesday, July 31: Sunny. Low 67-69, high 84-86.
Wednesday, August 1: Thundershowers. Low 60-63, high 87-89.
Thursday, August 2: Scattered thunderstorms. Low 64-66, high 87-89.
Friday, August 3: Partly sunny. Low 60-63, high 84-86.
Saturday, August 4: Thundershowers. Low 64-66, high 84-86.
Sunday, August 5: Partly sunny. Low 60-63, high 77-79.
Monday, August 6: Thundershowers. Low 60-63, high 80-83.
There you have it. This is for 05403 zip code and I jotted these numbers down Tuesday morning, the 10th of July. I'll go back and verify at the end, then let you know how it did!
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier
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