Summer starts on Wednesday. How appropriate on the same day, I'm forecasting the hottest temperature of a warm stretch of weather!
Heat resulting in 90° temperatures in the Midwest has been kept at bay so far this year. Our region has come very close to 90°, but Burlington has not reached it just yet. Leading up to the week of June 18 the Queen City has topped out at 88° as the warmest level.
The numbers in blue are valid for the Burlington International Airport. Wednesday will be the day to watch for records to fall. The other two days show records that are too far to be reached. The 90° heat is coming at an appropriate time. During the last 30 years, the average first date of 90 or higher has come on June 14. Here are some other records courtesy the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont.
This kind of warmth has been kept at bay. The Midwest has been very, very warm this year. We have too, but not as much. We've had impulses from southern and southeastern Canada come down from the northwest and provide cool shots of air. Meanwhile the jet stream takes a dip over us and gives us relief, while cities at or west of the Mississippi River boost into the 90s and 100s.
This time the warmth will make it to us. Forecast models put temperatures at about 70 degrees at 5,000 feet above ground level Wednesday and Thursday. Air temperatures rise as you go lower in the atmosphere (generally speaking) and that 70° will translate to lower 90s in the valleys, and upper 80s in the hillier terrain of Vermont, New York, and New Hampshire.
Dew Point temperatures are going to be on the rise as well. As for Monday the dew point temperature will stay in the 50s. However they will rise to the 60s and even close to 70 Wednesday. As a reminder, the dew point is a measure of moisture in the air, also how humid the air will feel. We'll get up into the muggy and uncomfortable levels seen above. That will take temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s and raise them about 5 more degrees (in terms of the heat index or what it feels like to the skin).
Some helpful reminders when this heat comes for the first time in the year:
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier