It's a pretty quiet day on the homepage of the National Weather Service for Wednesday, June 13:
I love a nice, quiet forecast once in a while. After rain has pushed through our area on the morning of Wednesday, June 13 the forecast turns much drier for our region. High pressure will build in at the surface and aloft, while temperatures remain slightly warmer than average. Here's a look at the jet stream for Saturday, June 16 and then again Tuesday, June 19.
Both images courtesy NOAA/NWS.
I've highlighted the jet stream via that yellow line you see. Think of the jet stream as a fast-moving column of air that can help steer storms, but also show where cold air pushes south "u" shape and warm air pushes north "n" shape. Both of these pictures show the lower 48 and we're looking good across the east coast according to this GFS model. Ridging across the U.S. east coast and southeast Canada will promote dry weather and the ridge looks to steer storms away from us.
We haven't tied too many dry days together this year so far. Here's a breakdown of the number of consecutive precip-free days in Burlington (Burlington International Airport).
2 dry days in a row: 10 occurrences
3 dry days in a row: 4 occurrences
4 dry days in a row: 1 occurrence (May 17-20, 2012)
We've only been able to get four dry days in a row, according to data from the airport in South Burlington. There were a few instances where a couple of dry days were interrupted by 'Trace' precipitation at the airport, which technically breaks the stretch. Thus the longest dry streak stands at four.
I'm projecting we'll get at least six out of this upcoming stretch from June 14-19, 2012. The Climate Prediction Center of NOAA has also put our area in a drier than average 6-10 day span.
Note the brown area over New England, which shows slimmer chances of precipitation through the next week and a half. As a result, temperatures will be rising to above-average levels for mid-June. Most of the days should reach to 80° or above in the Champlain Valley.
As for the longest dry streak of 2012? Nah, I don't think this will be it. Six days in a row isn't anything too special, but it will be one of the longest streaks we see this year. We'll probably top out around 8-10 dry days in a row at the Burlington Int'l Airport.
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier