The month of May is jumping right into the conga line and dancing away....to the "Heat is On" by Glenn Frey.
With the month less than one week from wrapping up, it's going to be yet another 'warmer-than-average' month. This will make 14 months straight that have been warmer than average at the Burlington International Airport, which will tie the airport's longest streak.
So far this May we have had 15 days above average in terms of temperatures, 7 days below, and 1 day at the average. I expect that number to jump to 22 for the above average based on the latest forecast, with warmth taking us through the 31st.
The weather pattern entering this weekend continues to show above-average temperatures across the eastern half of the United States. Building high pressure at the surface and aloft through Monday will keep any major storms at bay, while keeping precipitation chances less than 40% through Sunday. A weak upper-level disturbance will attempt to bring showers to the region Thursday, but without a lot of upper-level support it will only spawn a few isolated showers. Friday a more robust wave will move east, but because of the strong ridge in place across the east, it will be forced up and over New England. The majority of the precipitation will move to our north, however a trailing cold front will likely spark a late afternoon and early evening rain shower or thunderstorm, mainly after 4 p.m. Friday. The front will sink south Saturday, but not too far as it will then retreat north by Sunday afternoon. This will translate to a mostly sunny Saturday with minimal chances for rain and much drier air coming in. Early Sunday will start dry, but increase in humidity levels will be likely by the afternoon, as well as increasing clouds. Mugginess and clouds, as well as the threat for showers builds north on Memorial Day and that day has the best chance to produce rainfall, especially with that front straddling New England.
Here's my personal breakdown of this weekend.
There you have it. That's my take on this upcoming weekend and the weather to expect. Note Monday has the highest probabilities of precipitation, as that frontal boundary works its way north. Remember you can always go to Facebook where we provide consistent updates in terms of weather, also our weather page is here for daily discussions, and Kerrin Jeromin and myself are on Twitter, usually sparking up weather information and forecasts daily. Have a great weekend!
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier