5.15.12 Wednesday's Severe Weather Threat

Kerrin Jeromin

Posted: Updated:

By Kerrin Jeromin - email

Wednesday could be an interesting weather day for us. I anticipate our first round of severe weather so far this warm season of 2012. Here's the setup...

On Wednesday morning, leftover drizzle and fog in the morning will slowly dry out, allowing for sunshine through late morning and early afternoon. The sunshine will allow temperatures to build in to the 70s by Wednesday afternoon. The leftover moisture from the morning fog and drizzle should provide plenty of moisture near the surface to help destabilize the atmosphere. A cold front will sweep through our region from west to east Wednesday afternoon, lifting the in place unstable air, allowing for scattered rain showers and potentially strong thunderstorms.

The region with greatest instability would appear to be from western New York, through Vermont, and into interior New Hampshire by Wednesday afternoon. Within this region, we will also have about 40 knots of nearly unidirectional wind shear in the lowest 6km of the atmosphere. Surface winds will be at about 10 knots from the south, with upper level winds cranking at about 40-50 knots in the mid afternoon from the southwest. This shear should allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms, which may potentially form into a linear segment as the storms travel east. The biggest threat would appear to be isolated damaging wind gusts and hail to about the size of quarters. Also, heavy rain and lightning will accompany any thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.

Here is the area, and the threats. Please keep in mind, while all of the area could see severe weather, it does not mean everyone WILL...

Furthermore, the Storm Prediction Center has our region highlighted in the "slight risk" for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday. Their area is similar to my thinking, but I have included more of northern NY. I may even expand the area to include back to the St Lawrence River Valley if clouds do not hold down heating through Wednesday early afternoon. Definitely be sure to watch "Fox 44 This Morning" with meteorologist Steve Glazier from 7-9am on Wednesday to see what his thinking is, as well. There may be different data available tomorrow.