Hey Happy Friday!
I usually don't waste and paste (just came up with that term) other blogs on our site, but thought this was an interesting one. (Waste as in waste my brain knowledge w/out learning and just paste in someone else's thoughts) You like that? Clever I thought....anyway:
Affiliate WJLA in Washington, D.C. has a blog on their weather section regarding the Numerical Weather Prediction in the United States falling behind big time, running about 5 to 7 years behind the talent of overseas predictions, and costing our country big money on inaccurate forecasts. Here are some of the points and highlights of the article before I paste in the address.
-The U.S. GFS model has averaged 'third-best' in forecasting 500 hPa heights from the 1990s-2010s, behind the UKMET (2nd) and ECMWF (1st) models.
-The U.S. once led in NWP (numerical weather prediction) but now is falling behind fast due to lack of electronic 'space' on weather hard drives, computer systems, etc.
-The leading models are about five to seven years ahead of the U.S. models based on skill and trends in the forecast accuracy.
-Forecasts have been getting better during this data time period.
So the article is posted here and hopefully it stays up on their site long enough for you to check it out. I didn't get a chance to read the whole thing but it may give you an inside look at how we research the weather and forecasts when trying to predict what is going to happen. My big question is what is making these forecasts more inaccurate, and if it is the equations we enter into them that simulate the atmosphere, can we change ours to resemble the models that are successful? Courtesy Dr. Cliff Mass who wrote the blog and the weather team/employees at WJLA. Have a great weekend :)
-Meteorologist Steve Glazier